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Paper   IPM / M / 16550
School of Mathematics
  Title:   A generalized Gompertz growth model with applications and related birth-death processes
  Author(s):  Majid Asadi (Joint with A. Di Crescenzo, F. A. Sajadi, and S. Spina)
  Status:   Published
  Journal: Ricerche mat.
  Year:  2020
  Pages:   DOI: 10.1007/s11587-020-00548-y
  Supported by:  IPM
In this paper, we propose a flexible growth model that constitutes a suitable generalization of the well-known Gompertz model. We perform an analysis of various features of interest, including a sensitivity analysis of the initial value and the three parameters of the model. We show that the considered model provides a good fit to some real datasets concerning the growth of the number of individuals infected during the COVID-19 outbreak, and software failure data. The goodness of fit is established on the ground of the ISRP metric and the d2-distance. We also analyze two time-inhomogeneous stochastic processes, namely a birth-death process and a birth process, whose means are equal to the proposed growth curve. In the first case, we obtain the probability of ultimate extinction, being an absorbing endpoint. We also deal with a threshold crossing problem both for the proposed growth curve and the corresponding birth process. A simulation procedure for the latter process is also exploited.

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